Monthly Archives: March 2012

I’ll Bet Curt a Nickel

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Curt Smith, who’s a retired Bush I speechwriter, has been all over the media with folksy quotes about the NY-25 race.  Here’s what he told Rachel Barnhart:

 “Anyone who bet a nickel at this point should be basically assigned to an asylum.”

A lot of political coverage relies on home truths delivered by supposedly savvy observers, but the fact is that there’s a lot of data about the performance of Maggie and Louise in prior elections, as well as data that can be used to project performance by either candidate in the 2012 race.  One tool used by forecasters is the Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which uses the performance of the Presidential candidates in the last two elections to project whether a given district leans towards Republicans or Democrats.

At some point I’ll calculate the real PVI of this district, but for now I’ve put together a spreadsheet of the performance of President Obama in the new NY-25. Obama won the 25th by 18% (D+18 in PVI notation). Since Obama is running again, and since inner-city Rochester’s African-American population is in the district, it’s likely that we’ll see similar enthusiasm and turnout in 2012.  In other words, even though the real PVI for this district might not be as high as D+18, there are reasons to think that 2008 will be like 2012 in terms of Democratic turnout and enthusiasm

Democrat Eric Massa beat incumbent Randy Kuhl in the current NY-29 in 2008 when that district was R+7, and that was considered a major upset.  Republican Ann-Marie Buerkle beat Democrat Dan Maffei in the current NY-25 which is a D+3 district.  I’m sure upsets in D+18 or R+18 districts have happened, but I’d like Curt to point to one that resembles Rochester.

Analysts have also mentioned that Brooks can win Monroe County.  That’s true, but let’s keep in mind what election Maggie won.  In 2008, about 350,000 people voted in the towns of the new NY-25.  In the 2011 County Executive race, Maggie took the majority of 138,000 votes in Monroe County.  All the aw-shucks, gee-whiz down-home wisdom in the world won’t change the fact that the 2012 race will be completely unlike the races Maggie is used to winning.

So, I’ll take that bet, Curt, and if you want to call me insane, try throwing down some facts, rather than pithy aphorisms, to explain why.

Slaughter Starts Fundraising

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Joe Spector at the D&C has Louise’s first fundraising appeal. Here’s her first take on Maggie Brooks:

Republican Maggie Brooks has made it clear – that she won’t stand up for what counts in Western New York instead she’ll be more of the same refusing to break ties from the same Washington Republicans who have tried to shut down the government, trample on women’s rights and end Medicare as we know it.

Louise had $362K on hand as of the end of last year, which is the last reporting period posted by the FEC.  That’s not much for a sitting Member of Congress, mainly because this district hasn’t had a contested election in recent memory. Brooks said she has to raise $2 million, which I think is a reasonable guess at what a modern Congressional campaign costs.

Slaughter’s Response

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Representing your neighbors in Congress is a great honor and it is a responsibility that must be taken seriously. I am running for Congress because there’s more work to do on behalf of Monroe County. Our fight is not yet over to end insider trading in Congress and demand more accountability in our political system, to make our food supply safe for American families, and fix the trade policies that have left our local manufacturers competing on an unlevel playing field.

Here’s the whole thing via Rachel Barnhart.

Brooks Announces

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Maggie Brooks has officially announced her candidacy for Congress. Rachel Barnhart has the story at 13-WHAM, and here’s the D&C coverage, from Joe Spector, where Brooks says:

Brooks refused to criticize Slaughter, the liberal Democrat, saying “I’m not running against someone or something; I’m running for something.”

And she added, “This is about me. This is about what I have to offer.”

This is standard announcement fare that can’t be taken too seriously. As a challenger, Brooks is implicitly arguing that the current seat holder isn’t doing a good job. The question is when and how she’ll make that explicit.

Welcome to Roc25

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I’m Rottenchester, I ran the Fighting 29th, and a federal judge just moved me into the brand-new 25th Congressional District. Maggie Brooks is about to announce that she’ll take on Louise Slaughter in this district, and while it may not be a full-fledged barn burner (more on that later), the chicken coop is smoking and Pa is at the well filling buckets. So, welcome aboard. More news and analysis are coming.