The latest Siena Poll [pdf] shows Louise Slaughter with a 4 point lead over Maggie Brooks. That’s consistent with Charlie Cook’s new NY-25 PVI released a few days ago, D+5. That means, all other things being equal, a Democrat has a five point advantage in this district.

The question for next month is whether Brooks’ campaign has given Democrats a reason to vote for her instead of Slaughter. The crossstabs show that Brooks cut into Slaughter’s huge Democratic preference (Slaughter’s down to 81% vs 86% among Democrats in the last poll), solidified her Republican base a bit (2% gain), but is losing some ground among Independents.