City Turnout Will Drive 2012

In 2008, around 14,000 more voters voted in the towns and cities of the new 25th than voted in 2004. 55% of the bigger turnout came from the city. The city voted for Obama by an 81-17 margin, versus a 71-26 margin for Kerry vs Bush. The key question for Slaughter is whether these voters will turn out again in 2012. I’ll have some analysis at the House race level soon, but for now I’m using the Presidential election as a proxy for a tough contest between a Democrat and a Republican.

2 thoughts on “City Turnout Will Drive 2012

  1. I’d love to see these numbers compared to an off-Presidential election (which would provide an interesting congressional base-line), and with the odd-year County Exec race turnout.

    Let’s be honest, Maggie looks like a great candidate when most people are at their lowest levels of engagement in the political cycle. Running during even years is a totally different beast, with a lot of different factors getting people to the polls.

    • I’m planning on looking at D vs R in a few recent House elections, by town. It’s a bit time-consuming because I need to go into the Canvass books for each election and get totals for each town for each race.

      You’re right that the County Exec elections pull a little over 1/3 of the voters that a Presidential year does, so Maggie’s performance in those has very little predictive value.

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